Louisiana's chronic absenteeism rate did not move in a straight line after its 2021 peak.

After the pandemic pushed the state's chronic absenteeism rate from 17.6% in 2019 to 28.2% in 2021, the rate plunged to 19.9% in 2021-22. That one-year drop recovered 78.3% of the increase from the 2019 baseline to the 2021 peak.

Then the trend reversed.

The reversal nobody expected

Between 2022 and 2024, Louisiana's chronic absenteeism rate climbed for two consecutive years, rising 2.0 percentage points in 2023 and another 2.7 in 2024, reaching 24.6%. The state gave back 4.7 of the 8.3 percentage points it had recovered, tracing what amounts to a W on the chart: down during COVID's immediate aftermath, up again through 2024.

The 2024-25 school year brought the first break in that backslide. The statewide rate dropped 2.1 percentage points to 22.5%, the first improvement after the two-year rise. But even with that decline, Louisiana remains 4.9 percentage points above where it stood before the pandemic, having recovered 53.8% of the gap between its pre-COVID baseline and the 2021 peak.

A trend line that still points the wrong direction

A linear regression fitted to the four post-recovery data points, 2022 through 2025, shows a slope of +1.05 percentage points per year. Despite the 2025 improvement, the overall trajectory since 2022 is still trending upward.

Put differently: the 2025 dip hasn't yet compensated for the 2023 and 2024 deterioration. One year of improvement doesn't erase two years of backsliding.

What's behind the 2025 improvement

The Louisiana Department of Education launched its Power of Presence attendance strategy in June 2025. In January 2026, the Louisiana Supreme Court's chief justice described collaboration among the judiciary, BESE and the education department on truancy. The timing makes those developments suggestive context, not proof that they drove the 2025 dip. The improvement could also reflect a natural correction after two years of worsening; the data alone cannot separate those explanations.

What's clear from the numbers is the scale of the remaining challenge. Even at 22.5%, more than one in five Louisiana students is chronically absent. And the overall post-2022 trend still points upward: a linear fit through the four post-recovery data points shows a slope of +1.05 points per year, meaning the 2025 improvement hasn't yet reversed the broader trajectory. The 2025 improvement is a meaningful step, but the data does not establish whether it will hold.

Still 4.9 points above pre-COVID

The recovery arithmetic shows the gap. Louisiana wiped out 8.3 percentage points of its COVID-era spike in that first year, dropping from 28.2% to 19.9%. But two years of worsening added 4.7 points back. The net result after four post-pandemic years: the state has closed 53.8% of the gap.

Louisiana's W-shaped trajectory is a sharp initial recovery followed by a two-year reversal before the 2024-25 improvement. One good year is a data point, not a trend.

The 2025 data is encouraging. But Louisiana has been here before: the 2022 plunge to 19.9% looked like the beginning of a recovery, too, until two years of backsliding erased it.

The department now lists 2025-26 attendance materials on its student attendance data page, but that year is outside this verified 2019-25 series. A separate update will be needed to determine whether the 2025 improvement held.

---

Attendance rates come from the Louisiana Department of Education's student attendance data.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.